What direction will Japan’s industries take over the next few years?
According to Mizuho Bank’s medium-term outlook, the next five years will be a major turning point. Since the official English version of the report has not been released, I’ve put together a simple, easy-to-understand summary for readers like me who aren’t experts in economics.
What Is the Mizuho Industry Report?
The Mizuho Industry Report is a series of publications in which Mizuho Group’s specialists analyze trends in industries and technologies. It offers a quick and clear overview of what is happening across sectors such as automobiles, IT, and energy—useful for anyone looking for strategic insights or an easy way to grasp industry basics. Even readers who struggle with economic topics will find it accessible.
Five Key Changes That Will Shape Japan’s Industries
Mizuho Bank highlights five major external forces that will strongly influence Japanese companies in the coming years:
- Rising Global Uncertainty
→ Logistics costs are increasing, and companies face more difficulty securing stable supplies of materials. - Acceleration of Decarbonization
→ Investments to reduce CO₂ emissions are necessary, but new business opportunities will emerge as well. - Worsening Labor Shortages
→ In sectors such as construction, logistics, and services, the lack of workers will increasingly limit business operations. - Faster Population Decline
→ Domestic demand will shrink overall, though medical and nursing care demand will continue to grow as society ages. - Rapid Advancement of AI and Digital Technologies
→ AI will increasingly support human work and create entirely new industries.
Japan’s Risks and Opportunities
Risks
- Supply instability and higher costs due to decarbonization and geopolitical uncertainty
- Labor shortages leading to reduced production or limited service capacity
- Growing competition in manufacturing, making outdated business models unsustainable
Opportunities
- Companies that embrace AI and digital transformation can grow rapidly
- New decarbonization-related fields—renewable energy, electricity infrastructure, etc.—will expand
- Aging demographics will drive steady growth in medical and healthcare markets
- “Re-shoring” production back to Japan could benefit materials and component manufacturers
What Companies Must Do Going Forward
The report emphasizes that “manufacturing alone will no longer be enough to survive.”
Key points for the next phase are:
- Strengthen Supply Systems
→ Automation to offset labor shortages, and diversifying procurement sources. - Expand the Value Chain
→ Moving beyond manufacturing to incorporate services and digital offerings. - Actively Use AI and Digital Technologies
→ Boosting productivity and enabling operations with fewer workers.
Conclusion: Growth Will Come to Companies That Adapt to Change
Mizuho Bank’s outlook makes it clear that the next several years present a major crossroads for Japan. Global instability, the push for decarbonization, labor shortages, population decline, and the rapid evolution of AI—these changes cannot be avoided.
Yet behind these risks lie significant opportunities.
Companies that adopt AI, develop new decarbonization businesses, leverage strengths in healthcare, or take advantage of the domestic manufacturing shift will be the ones to grow.
To survive and thrive, Japanese companies will need to strengthen supply systems, broaden their value chains, and fully embrace digital transformation.
This transition may feel uncertain, but it also signals the beginning of a new stage. Japan’s industries now stand at the threshold of their next chapter.
Official Report
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