In recent years, the trainee idols of STARTO ENTERTAINMENT (formerly Johnny & Associates) have been attracting attention. While groups like Snow Man, King & Prince, Naniwa Danshi, and SixTONES are performing at the top level, there are junior groups with talent and fan support that have yet to make their CD debut.
What explains the difference? This article uses recent news, industry trends, and AI analysis to explore how debut decisions are made and what the future may hold for these idols.
AI Analysis: Current Criteria for Debut
Based on observable information, AI analysis suggests that debut decisions rely on three main layers: talent, commercial viability, and media evaluation.
Tier 1 – Talent and Performance Readiness
The first requirement is basic readiness and skill:
- Singing, dancing, and overall performance quality
- Group cohesion and shared concept
- Professionalism and ability to handle live situations
This layer evaluates whether the group has moved beyond the “trainee” stage and is ready to perform at a professional level.
Tier 2 – Commercial Viability (Numbers)
Next comes the commercial layer, which looks at measurable popularity:
- Fan club membership and activity
- Individual popularity within the group
- Concert and stage attendance
- Merchandise and DVD sales
- YouTube and social media views and engagement
Projected CD sales are also critical here, but not as a standalone measure. Analysts consider factors like:
- Estimated first-week sales
- Multi-version purchases by fans
- Age and spending power of fanbase
- Potential for continuous releases
Today, CDs are less about immediate profit and more a hub to expand tours, merchandise, and media opportunities.
Tier 3 – TV and Sponsorship Evaluation
Finally, the most complex layer involves media and sponsorship:
- TV appearances and ratings
- Compatibility with programs
- Sponsorship and corporate tie-ins
In the past, TV performance was the decisive factor: high ratings and sponsors often meant a “go” for debut. Now, with younger audiences watching less TV, these indicators are less reliable, making final decisions harder.
Why Debut Decisions Have Become More Complex
The challenge is not the absence of criteria, but the inability to prioritize them. Previously, TV and sponsorship were the final judgment. Other metrics like CD sales or concert attendance mainly served to gauge value for TV.
Now, there are multiple “paths to success”:
- Live-focused groups
- Social media-driven groups
- Groups with highly dedicated core fans
- Groups pursuing stage, acting, or international markets
Without deciding which path to prioritize, debut decisions are put on hold. Even projected CD sales are now only part of the equation, serving as a gateway to further activities rather than a final goal.
The main difficulty is planning post-debut growth. Externally, some groups may seem “stalled,” but in reality, the question is which path to develop first. This is not a reflection of individual talent, but a structural shift in the industry.
The Future of Idol Activities
The future will not be a one-size-fits-all model. Before debut, groups need a clear plan for their path:
- Live-focused: small to mid-size venues with strong fan interaction
- Social media-driven: building buzz online before mainstream exposure
- Stage and acting: developing skills in theater and dramas
- International markets: targeting global audiences
CDs are no longer the ultimate measure of success—they are a stepping stone. Engagement with fans and long-term connection are becoming more important than TV ratings or numbers alone.
In other words, success will come in multiple forms, and debut status alone will not define a group’s value. Fans will increasingly focus on how a group grows and the unique experiences they provide.
Note: Images used are illustrative and may not reflect actual groups.
コメント